1025 S Central Ave · Lakeland, FL 33815

$229,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1958 6,342 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD Case #093-609921. HUD owned property, sold As Is. Located on a corner lot, move in ready and waiting for you, this property has updated fixtures throughout! Neutral color and flooring scheme makes decorating a breeze! Maple cabinets in kitchen, cermaic tile and carpeting throughout. $100 down payment program available for owner occupant buyers. Quick response to all offers, no short sale hassles! Equal Housing Opportunity.

Key facts

• Storm shelter
• Tile flooring
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• STORM SHELTER
• TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RB-2; Unfurnished; Total lot size about 0.15 acres
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Estimated living area about 1,104 sq. ft.
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Paved road frontage; Lot dimensions approx. 57 x 111

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Private mailbox
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,559/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $230k implies a 520% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,918 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $110,248
• Equity at exit: $206,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $351,945
• Equity at exit: $445,868

Cash invested: $64,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,926/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,953

Max offer price $174,522

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,375
• Closing costs: $6,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1213 W Patterson St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	840	$1,350	$1.61	14d	1	0.02mi
1206 W Highland St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	972	$1,495	$1.54	23d	1	0.10mi
1246 Dorothy St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,300	$1.55	23d	1	0.24mi
808 S Central Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	23d	1	0.35mi
101 Lake Hunter Dr #8 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	905	$1,400	$1.55	23d	1	0.40mi
915 Ariana St Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	819	$1,395	$1.70	3d	1	0.46mi
1040 Ruby St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,595	$1.44	10d	1	0.47mi
1238 Herschell St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1323	$1,300	$0.98	23d	1	0.49mi
518 Pinewood Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	891	$1,175	$1.32	23d	1	0.54mi
512 Dade Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$1,149	$1.23	23d	1	0.57mi
510 Dade Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$1,149	$1.23	14d	1	0.57mi
1545 King Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,450	$1.42	3d	1	0.60mi
1301 W Walnut St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	756	$1,300	$1.72	14d	1	0.61mi
1618 Wayman St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	994	$1,750	$1.76	23d	1	0.61mi
524 Montana Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	817	$1,300	$1.59	23d	1	0.65mi
1139 Olive St Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,725	$1.75	3d	1	0.66mi
515 Oregon Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	3d	1	0.66mi
607 Kansas Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	829	$1,150	$1.39	23d	1	0.69mi
1149 Sycamore St Unit 1149 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	23d	1	0.70mi
1514 Alice Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,250	$1.35	14d	1	0.86mi
457 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	3d	1	0.87mi
455 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	19d	1	0.87mi
1005 S New York Ave Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	14d	1	0.90mi
1005 S New York Ave Unit 6 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	14d	1	0.90mi
302 W Park St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	14d	1	0.90mi
830 W Beacon Rd #13 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	12d	1	0.91mi
830 W Beacon Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	690	$1,295	$1.88	23d	2	0.91mi
305 W Hancock St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	821	$1,195	$1.46	23d	1	0.91mi
2206 W Highland St Unit 2208 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	756	$1,125	$1.49	10d	1	1.05mi
1061 S Tennessee Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,100	$1.91	14d	1	1.12mi
2610 S San Gully Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,375	$1.45	23d	1	1.14mi
1116 S Tennessee Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	761	$1,250	$1.64	23d	1	1.15mi
400 W Beacon Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$2,001	$2.32	3d	6	1.18mi
926 W Carole St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,100	$1.31	23d	1	1.20mi
920 W Carole St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,200	$1.43	23d	1	1.20mi
2726 S San Gully Rd Unit 2726 Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,450	$1.21	14d	1	1.21mi
1112 South Blvd Unit E Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,250	$1.71	23d	1	1.23mi
411 E Park St Unit B Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1063	$1,500	$1.41	3d	1	1.26mi
411 E Park St Unit A Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1063	$1,500	$1.41	23d	1	1.26mi
407 Enclave Pl #407 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1220	$2,125	$1.74	14d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,500 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-03-08
   price $229,500
3. 2026-01-27
   historical $1,600
4. 2026-01-27
   listed $239,500 Active
5. 2026-01-25
   price $1,600
6. 2025-12-07
   listed $1,700
7. 2025-08-16
   historical $1,700
8. 2025-08-15
   historical
9. 2025-07-14
   listed $1,700
10. 2025-07-14
    listed $239,500 Active
11. 2012-09-27
    soldstatus $37,000 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    HUD Case #093-609921. HUD owned property, sold As Is. Located on a corner lot, move in ready and waiting for you, this property has updated fixtures throughout! Neutral color and flooring scheme makes decorating a breeze! Maple cabinets in kitchen, cermaic tile and carpeting throughout. $100 down payment program available for owner occupant buyers. Quick response to all offers, no short sale hassles! Equal Housing Opportunity.

12. 2012-04-25
    listed $37,000 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    HUD Case #093-609921. HUD owned property, sold As Is. Located on a corner lot, move in ready and waiting for you, this property has updated fixtures throughout! Neutral color and flooring scheme makes decorating a breeze! Maple cabinets in kitchen, cermaic tile and carpeting throughout. $100 down payment program available for owner occupant buyers. Quick response to all offers, no short sale hassles! Equal Housing Opportunity.

13. 2009-08-10
    historical
14. 2008-08-24
    listed $76,500
15. 2007-03-20
    soldstatus $139,900
16. 2007-03-16
    soldstatus $139,900
17. 2006-09-26
    listed $139,900
18. 2006-04-13
    soldstatus $101,000
19. 2005-12-07
    listed $124,900
20. 1966-07-01
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,856
• − Property taxes: −$2,926
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$6,676
• Taxable loss: −$7,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,893
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1986.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $229,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Rental Removed $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed for Rent $1,700 STELLARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Rental Removed $1,700 STELLARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Listed for Rent $1,700 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-27 Sold (MLS) $37,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-25 Listed $37,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-24 Listed $76,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2007-03-16 Sold (MLS) $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-26 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-13 Sold (MLS) $101,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-07 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1966-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,926 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.