66 Hathcock Rd

Apalachicola, FL 32320

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,859/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-367/mo
• Annual: $-4,410/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (37.8% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in FL, #1,611 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $299k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in Apalachicola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.