66 Hathcock Rd · Apalachicola, FL 32320

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2004 1.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A fantastic home on a 1.26 acre mol lot. Custom cabinets, large garage, hardwood floors, prewired for surround sound! A must see!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Quiet setting
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN AND DINING SPACE
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• QUIET SETTING
• POOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Residential property; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Outdoor above-ground private pool; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Recessed lighting

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in Apalachicola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in FL, #1,611 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $299k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,929 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $139,325
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $428,470
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32320

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,324

Max offer price $234,083

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-198	-5% $-283	+0% $-367	+5% $-452	+10% $-537
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-441	+0% $-367	+5% $-294	+10% $-221
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-291	base $-367	+0.5pp $-445	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 134 DOM
19. 2026-04-24
    price $325,000
20. 2026-03-06
    price $339,000
21. 2026-01-16
    listed $349,000 Active
22. 2009-12-03
    soldstatus $172,000
23. 2009-11-27
    soldstatus $172,000 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    A fantastic home on a 1.26 acre mol lot. Custom cabinets, large garage, hardwood floors, prewired for surround sound! A must see!

24. 2009-10-01
    listed $174,900 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    A fantastic home on a 1.26 acre mol lot. Custom cabinets, large garage, hardwood floors, prewired for surround sound! A must see!

25. 2002-08-23
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,554/yr (+$130/mo · 167.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 92% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$9,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apalachicola

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1611

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,503

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 18% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.69%
• Current HPI: 358.7623
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1200.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $325,000 RAFGC
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $339,000 RAFGC
• 2026-01-16 Listed $349,000 RAFGC
• 2009-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-27 Sold (MLS) $172,000 RAFGC
• 2009-10-01 Listed $174,900 RAFGC
• 2002-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · -19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.