15111 Pipeline Ave #243

Chino Hills, CA 91709

$339,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 12,000 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,980/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $12/mo
• Annual: $138/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($138/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $298k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#299 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chino Valley Unified (suburban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #334 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lyle S. Briggs Fundamental (644 students, 68% FRL); Robert O. Townsend Junior High (879 students, 30% FRL); Chino Hills High (math 57% / reading 76%, grade B, #151 of 1,170 statewide, top 13%, 2,800 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chino Valley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.1% in Chino Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.