6279 Avery St SW

Covington, GA 30014

$224,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,770/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$343
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,488/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.