6279 Avery St SW · Covington, GA 30014

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2006 6,534 sqft lot $152/sqft · 14% below area Est $263k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional and inviting layout perfect for modern living. The interior flows seamlessly to a spacious backyard, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation and activities. Complete with a one-car garage, this well-maintained residence is ready for its next owners to call it home.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Move-in-ready
• Functional layout

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MOVE-IN-READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,011 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,624
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -14.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6387 Avery St SW	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,479 (0%)	1mo	$205,000	$139	95
6358 Avery St SW	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+3%)	18mo	$210,000	$138	75
6184 Avery St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-6%)	15mo	$230,000	$165	70
3132 Lunsford Cir SW	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+15%)	5mo	$235,000	$138	47
9105 Sterling Lakes Cir	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,500 (+1%)	12mo	$223,000	$149	46
4139 Ponderosa Dr SW	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+9%)	20mo	$270,000	$168	45
2228 Emory St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,328 (-10%)	8mo	$150,000	$113	45
9105 Highland Dr SW	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,375 (-7%)	15mo	$219,500	$160	45
3132 Webster St SW	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,526 (+3%)	16mo	$72,000	$47	41
2159 Hendricks St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	19mo	$167,000	$124	37
6255 Green Acres Dr SW	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-12%)	13mo	$190,000	$147	36
8302 N Sterling Lakes Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,694 (+14%)	12mo	$210,000	$124	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-48,644
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-69,328
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30014

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,991/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,927

Max offer price $202,997

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6126 Avery St SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,881	$1.18	24d	1	0.22mi
5132 Avery St SW Unit A (APT 101) Covington, GA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	5d	1	0.47mi
8247 Spillers Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	1.5	1530	$1,500	$0.98	13d	1	0.67mi
8189 Spillers Dr SW Covington, GA	2.0	2.5	1080	$1,395	$1.29	5d	1	0.67mi
6100 Greenleaf Ct SW Covington, GA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	17d	1	0.68mi
6103 Oakwood Cir SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1372	$900	$0.66	18d	1	0.73mi
6154 Green Acres Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,900	$1.83	24d	1	0.76mi
8246 Collier St SW Covington, GA	3.0	1.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	44d	1	0.77mi
9161 Thrash St SW Covington, GA	4.0	2.0	1272	$1,481	$1.16	44d	1	0.82mi
8000 Revolution WAY Covington, GA	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,692	$1.45	1d	15	0.93mi
10154 Allen Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.98mi
10154 Allen Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	21d	1	0.98mi
9220 Spillers Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,455	$1.22	5d	1	0.98mi
9123 Jefferson Village Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,750	$1.43	22d	1	1.04mi
9135 Jefferson Village Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.5	1126	$1,736	$1.54	5d	1	1.05mi
4112 Dorchester Dr SE Covington, GA	3.0–5.0	2.5–4.0	2299	$2,621	$1.14	1d	1	1.10mi
9136 Tara Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.5	1530	$2,040	$1.33	5d	1	1.10mi
9166 Tara Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,650	$1.19	44d	1	1.14mi
65 Kenzi Way SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,000	$0.82	5d	1	1.15mi
9270 Scarlett Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,795	$1.25	24d	1	1.27mi
5136 W Herring St Covington, GA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	1.41mi
9293 Melody Cir SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,750	$0.97	3d	1	1.41mi
7900 Kaplan LN Covington, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,459	$2.35	5d	68	1.42mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $224,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,500 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,500 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,500 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,500 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,500 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,500 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,500 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,500 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,500 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $227,500 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,500 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,500 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,500 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,500 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $229,950 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional and inviting layout perfect for modern living. The interior flows seamlessly to a spacious backyard, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation and activities. Complete with a one-car garage, this well-maintained residence is ready for its next owners to call it home.

17. 2026-04-17
    price $229,950 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional and inviting layout perfect for modern living. The interior flows seamlessly to a spacious backyard, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation and activities. Complete with a one-car garage, this well-maintained residence is ready for its next owners to call it home.

18. 2026-03-27
    price $234,500 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional and inviting layout perfect for modern living. The interior flows seamlessly to a spacious backyard, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation and activities. Complete with a one-car garage, this well-maintained residence is ready for its next owners to call it home.

19. 2026-03-27
    price $234,500 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional and inviting layout perfect for modern living. The interior flows seamlessly to a spacious backyard, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation and activities. Complete with a one-car garage, this well-maintained residence is ready for its next owners to call it home.

20. 2026-02-27
    listed $239,500 New 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional and inviting layout perfect for modern living. The interior flows seamlessly to a spacious backyard, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation and activities. Complete with a one-car garage, this well-maintained residence is ready for its next owners to call it home.

21. 2026-02-27
    listed $239,500 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a functional and inviting layout perfect for modern living. The interior flows seamlessly to a spacious backyard, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation and activities. Complete with a one-car garage, this well-maintained residence is ready for its next owners to call it home.

22. 2022-04-11
    soldstatus $209,250
23. 2020-04-15
    soldstatus $119,900
24. 2019-05-10
    soldstatus $130,000
25. 2019-05-07
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed
26. 2019-04-19
    status Pending
27. 2019-04-15
    listed $135,000 Active
28. 2015-08-13
    price $71,500
29. 2015-08-07
    soldstatus $76,500
30. 2015-07-29
    soldstatus $76,500 Sold
31. 2015-07-19
    status Under Contract
32. 2015-07-18
    price $76,500
33. 2015-07-14
    listed $71,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,991
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$5,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #19602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, GA
• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 96
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,425
• Household income: $72,254
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.50%
• Current HPI: 270.9868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+221.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $229,950 GAMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $229,950 FMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $234,500 FMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $234,500 GAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $239,500 FMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $239,500 GAMLS
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $209,250 Public Records
• 2020-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2019-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-07 Sold (MLS) $130,000 FMLS
• 2019-04-19 Pending — FMLS
• 2019-04-15 Listed $135,000 FMLS
• 2015-08-13 Price Changed $71,500 GAMLS
• 2015-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 2015-07-29 Sold (MLS) $76,500 GAMLS
• 2015-07-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2015-07-18 Price Changed $76,500 GAMLS
• 2015-07-14 Listed $71,500 GAMLS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,991 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.