538 New Scotland Ave

Albany, NY 12208

$279,900C+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Built 1948 · MultiFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,270/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $649/mo
• Annual: $7,788/yr
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.94%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $280k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $324/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#129 in NY, #2,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Albany City School District (urban): math 37% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #543 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Albany High School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #710 of 1,100 statewide, top 65%, 2,676 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Albany City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $280k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.7% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Driveway — Cracked concrete
• Major: Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and peeling