198 Big Willard Rd

Hazard, KY 41723

$95,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $982/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $154/mo
• Annual: $1,844/yr
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Perry County (rural): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #96 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.9% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Signs of wear and potential leaks
• Major: exterior siding — Weathered siding
• Major: flooring — Worn-out carpet
• Major: interior walls/paint — Painted walls with visible wear