198 Big Willard Rd · Hazard, KY 41723

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1955 Fair condition 2.00 ac lot $89/sqft · 9% below area Est $144k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering approximately 1,469 square feet of living space, nestled in a peaceful country setting in Busy, KY. Built in 1955, this home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with comfortable living space, while outside features include a convenient carport and a storage building for added flexibility. The property also includes an additional lot located across the road, bringing the total acreage to approximately 2 acres—perfect for gardening, recreation, or future possibilities. A Generac generator is installed giving peace of mind during outages!

Key facts

• Installed generator
• Country setting
• Storage building

Tags

• COUNTRY SETTING
• CONVENIENT CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• ADDITIONAL LOT
• INSTALLED GENERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.9% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Perry County (rural): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #96 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,473
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -34.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Daniels Ln	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+5%)	22mo	$155,000	$138	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $392
• Equity at exit: $20,552

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $18,407
• Equity at exit: $19,613

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41723

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $212/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $181	+0% $154	+5% $127	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $115	+0% $154	+5% $192	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $178	base $154	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 655-char remark

   Show marketing remark (655 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering approximately 1,469 square feet of living space, nestled in a peaceful country setting in Busy, KY. Built in 1955, this home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with comfortable living space, while outside features include a convenient carport and a storage building for added flexibility. The property also includes an additional lot located across the road, bringing the total acreage to approximately 2 acres—perfect for gardening, recreation, or future possibilities. A Generac generator is installed giving peace of mind during outages!

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $95,000 Active 655-char remark

   Show marketing remark (655 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering approximately 1,469 square feet of living space, nestled in a peaceful country setting in Busy, KY. Built in 1955, this home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with comfortable living space, while outside features include a convenient carport and a storage building for added flexibility. The property also includes an additional lot located across the road, bringing the total acreage to approximately 2 acres—perfect for gardening, recreation, or future possibilities. A Generac generator is installed giving peace of mind during outages!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $212 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$605/yr (+$50/mo · 285.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$212
• − Insurance: −$1,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$78
• After-tax cash flow: $1,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 1955 ranch-style home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for attention include the roof, exterior siding, flooring, and interior walls. Upgrades in these areas would significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and living space, making it more attractive for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of wear and potential leaks
• Major exterior siding — Weathered siding
• Major flooring — Worn-out carpet
• Major interior walls/paint — Painted walls with visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — Fixes major issue and improves curb appeal
• Both New siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and aesthetics
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of wear and potential leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Painted walls with visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — Fixes major issue and improves curb appeal ↑
• Both New siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and aesthetics ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Perry County
• NCES district ID: 2104770
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $32,540
• Composite: 26.53/100
• National rank: #7196
• State rank: #96 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hazard

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #9701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,077

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,976 people
• By 2030: 23,390 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 20,270 · -18.8%
• By 2050: 17,547 · -29.7%
• By 2075: 12,599 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 9,358 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.7% · R 79.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+54.3 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+58.5 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.53%
• Current HPI: 91.793
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $95,000 EKAR