40 Kimberling #1

Kimberling City, MO 65686

$220,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$470
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-608/mo
• Annual: $-7,294/yr
• Cap rate: 2.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.84%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-608 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Blue Eye R-V (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #107 of 324 in MO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Eye Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 198 students, 48% FRL); Blue Eye Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 170 students, 51% FRL); Blue Eye High (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #35 of 521 statewide, top 8%, 178 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: 346 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.1% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?