40 Kimberling #1 · Kimberling City, MO 65686

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Built 1992 Good condition 7,841 sqft lot Garage $161/sqft · 57% below area $470/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Open Sunday, July 12 * * 2-4pm * * NEW PRICE! Exceptional Value for Easy Lake Living!Now offered at an even more competitive price, this beautifully maintained, true one-level, no-step patio home in Kimberling Shores delivers outstanding value along with the low-maintenance lifestyle you've been looking for. Leave the yard work and exterior maintenance behind and spend more time enjoying Table Rock Lake. Inside, you'll find 2 spacious bedrooms, 2 updated bathrooms, soaring ceilings, new engineered hardwood flooring, generous living areas, abundant storage, a dedicated laundry room, and an attached garage--all designed for comfortable everyday living.

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Lakefront community
• Clubhouse

Tags

• LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY
• OUTDOOR POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• LAWN MAINTENANCE
• WATER SEWER TRASH SERVICE
• WALK-IN NO-STEP DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-608 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.1% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Blue Eye R-V (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #107 of 324 in MO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Eye Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 198 students, 48% FRL); Blue Eye Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 170 students, 51% FRL); Blue Eye High (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #35 of 521 statewide, top 8%, 178 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 346 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,040 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.84%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $515,319
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -57.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1402 Rocky Shore Ter	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-5%)	19mo	$350,000	$269	50
2132 Pokeberry Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,515 (+11%)	21mo	$549,000	$362	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-74,050
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-113,053
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $549,000 ($414/sqft)
• Median days on market: 181 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65686

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,519

Max offer price $132,040

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-456	-5% $-532	+0% $-608	+5% $-684	+10% $-760
Rent	-10% $-746	-5% $-677	+0% $-608	+5% $-539	+10% $-470
Rate	-1.0pp $-497	-0.5pp $-552	base $-608	+0.5pp $-665	+1.0pp $-723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Kimberling Blvd Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	93d	1	1.15mi
3 Kimberling Blvd Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	93d	1	1.44mi
2 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	93d	1	1.46mi
4 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	93d	1	1.46mi
6 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	93d	1	1.46mi
8 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	93d	1	1.47mi
10 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	93d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax amount listed (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $470HOA fee includes water, sewer, trash, snow removal, and insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Security: Storm door(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residenceOne level
• Construction: Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchStorm doorsCommunity poolWaterfront lotLakefrontHas a viewPrivate maintained road / private road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenFree-standing electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveRefrigeratorGarbage disposalPantry
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Laminate counters noted (flooring types not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningElectric heatingForced airHeat pumpFireplace heating option
• Interior features: PantryLaminate countersWater softener (owned)Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (main level)

HOA detail $470/mo · $5,640/yr

• Likely covers: exterior maint.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $220,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $220,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $220,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $220,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $220,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $220,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $220,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $220,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $220,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $220,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $220,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $220,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $220,000 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $220,000 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $220,000 Active 88 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $220,000 Active 87 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    price $220,000 Active 86 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $230,000 Active 86 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $230,000 Active 85 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $230,000 Active 84 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $230,000 Active 83 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 82 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 81 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $230,000 Active 80 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 79 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 78 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 77 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 76 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 75 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 74 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $230,000 Active 73 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $230,000 Active 72 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $230,000 Active 71 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $230,000 Active 69 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $230,000 Active 66 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $230,000 Active 63 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $230,000 Active 62 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $230,000 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $230,000 Active 60 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $230,000 Active 59 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $230,000 Active 57 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $230,000 Active 56 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $230,000 Active 53 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 52 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 51 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$11,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,670
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,820–$20,460 screening

This well-maintained, single-level home offers spacious living areas and new hardwood flooring throughout. The property is ready for move-in and has a good condition score.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both install new outdoor lighting — enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue Eye Elem. F MO #481/1,115 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Blue Eye Middle D- MO #149/391 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Blue Eye High C+ MO #35/521 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Eye R-V
• NCES district ID: 2905280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,591
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4500
• State rank: #107 of 324 in MO

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Kimberling City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stone · 28,147 people
• Population (ZIP): 4,487
• Household income: $56,644
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.17%
• Current HPI: 198.5699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax amount listed (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $470HOA fee includes water, sewer, trash, snow removal, and insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Security: Storm door(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residenceOne level
• Construction: Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchStorm doorsCommunity poolWaterfront lotLakefrontHas a viewPrivate maintained road / private road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenFree-standing electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveRefrigeratorGarbage disposalPantry
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Laminate counters noted (flooring types not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningElectric heatingForced airHeat pumpFireplace heating option
• Interior features: PantryLaminate countersWater softener (owned)Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (main level)

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $230,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-16 Listed $250,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-15 Listed $250,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $250,000 SOMO
• 2025-10-06 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $260,000 SOMO
• 2025-10-01 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-09-03 Listed $274,900 SOMO
• 2025-07-25 Listed $279,900 SOMO