1438 Ely Town Rd

Dryden, VA 24243

$62,500A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $516/mo
• Annual: $6,195/yr
• Cap rate: 16.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.40%
• DSCR: 2.58
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $17,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($432 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#479 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dryden Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 273 students, 87% FRL); Pennington Middle (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 274 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 58% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.