1438 Ely Town Rd · Dryden, VA 24243

$62,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1955 1.05 ac lot $52/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Might Be Great Opportunity for Investment! Home was Extensively Remodeled Approx 4 yrs Ago-New Siding, Wiring, Plumbing, New Windows! Needs a Little More Work- Beautiful Views of the Mountains but Convenient to Schools and Town- Public Water Needs Central Heating System and Some TLC

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New siding
• New wiring

Tags

• EXTENSIVELY REMODELED
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WIRING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW WINDOWS
• BEAUTIFUL VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water available; Sewer connected / Septic tank; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Residential property; A-1 zoning; Subdivision: Poor Valley
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Sloped lot; Has view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes living areas and bedrooms)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#479 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dryden Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 273 students, 87% FRL); Pennington Middle (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 274 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 58% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($432 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,625 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.40%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,020
• List price: $62,500
• Delta: -63.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $66,897
• Equity at exit: $56,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.78×
• Total profit: $171,102
• Equity at exit: $121,424

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24243

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $188/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $468

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,500 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,500 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,500 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,500 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,500 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,500 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $62,500 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,500 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $62,500 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,500 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $62,500 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $62,500 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,500 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,500 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,500 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $62,500 Active 284-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $188 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$325/yr (+$27/mo · 173.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$188
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $5,481
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,316
• After-tax cash flow: $4,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dryden

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #20741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,139

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% German 3% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.62%
• Current HPI: 150.8997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $62,500 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $188 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.