1007 Almeria Rd

West Palm Beach, FL 33405

$495,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,861 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$593
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$812
• Net cashflow: $-134/mo
• Annual: $-1,608/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $471k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $387k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $387k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belvedere Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 477 students, 79% FRL); Conniston Middle School (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,075 students, 74% FRL); Forest Hill Community High School (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 2,407 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $495k implies a 332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in West Palm Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.