2002 Oliver Creek Rd

Lake Monticello, VA 22974

$324,797B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,303/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,703
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $630/mo
• Annual: $7,560/yr
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.31%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $90,943

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carysbrook Elementary (math 57% / reading 64%, grade B-, #529 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 472 students, 43% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 23% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $325k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.