2002 Oliver Creek Rd · Lake Monticello, VA 22974

$324,797

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1979 2.09 ac lot Est $376k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lovely 3 bedroom 2 bath home on 2+ acres only 15 minutes east of Pantops/Charlottesville. Looking to establish a micro homestead w/ chickens, a garden & fruit trees in the country? Want to escape Albemarle/C'ville for lower Fluvanna County taxes? This home is for you! Many upgrades including well pump in 2025. Easy access to I-64 & shopping/dining/gym/etc. in Zion Crossroads. Make this house your home and enjoy life in the country!!!

Key facts

• Micro homestead
• Fruit trees
• Easy access to i-64

Tags

• MICRO HOMESTEAD
• FRUIT TREES
• EASY ACCESS TO I-64
• LOWER FLUVANNA COUNTY TAXES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Surveillance system
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story
• Construction: Stick-built construction with wood siding; Block foundation; Composition/shingle roof; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Partially fenced yard; Deck; Front porch and side porch; Porch; Garden and landscaped areas; Native plants and wooded sections; Shed(s); Poultry coop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar (kitchen seating)
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (including a primary bedroom on the first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling; Electric heating
• Interior features: Primary bedroom and primary bathroom located on the main level; Breakfast bar; Double-pane, insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carysbrook Elementary (math 57% / reading 64%, grade B-, #529 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 472 students, 43% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 23% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $325k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,797

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.31%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,936
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2228 Oliver Creek Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	10mo	$341,900	$356	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $216,907
• Equity at exit: $292,603

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $606,976
• Equity at exit: $631,009

Cash invested: $90,943 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22974

• Home prices YoY: 12.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,703
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,693/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,506

Max offer price $324,797

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $814	-5% $722	+0% $630	+5% $538	+10% $446
Rent	-10% $369	-5% $500	+0% $630	+5% $761	+10% $891
Rate	-1.0pp $794	-0.5pp $713	base $630	+0.5pp $546	+1.0pp $460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,199
• Closing costs: $9,744
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $324,797 Active
3. 2021-07-12
   soldstatus $202,000
4. 2014-08-20
   listed $75,000
5. 2012-12-08
   historical
6. 2012-06-09
   listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,693 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,663 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$970/yr (+$81/mo · 57.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,194
• − Property taxes: −$1,693
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,171
• − Management: −$3,171
• − Depreciation: −$9,449
• Taxable income: $2,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$561
• After-tax cash flow: $6,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,123

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 37.70%
• Current HPI: 351.8003
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+333.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $324,797 CAAR
• 2021-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-20 Listed $75,000 CAAR
• 2012-12-08 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2012-06-09 Listed $75,000 CAAR

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,693 · +22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.