4940 Maiden Forest Rd

Vienna, MD 21869

$150,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,355/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $156/mo
• Annual: $1,870/yr
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.45%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#342 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.