4940 Maiden Forest Rd · Vienna, MD 21869

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1984 3.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

3BR, 2BA Singlewide in need of rehab. Includes two parcels (26 @ 1.10acres & 46 @ 2.00 acres) for a total of 3.10+/- acres.

Key facts

• 3.1 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 32 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Gravity septic field
• Home design: Manufactured / modular property; Single-story layout (main-level living)
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Above-grade living area of 980 (assessor); No basement
• Exterior features: Partly wooded and cleared lot in a rural setting; Additional parcel included (Tax Map 45, Parcel 46 — 2.00 acres)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Interior features: Assessor-reported living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#342 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,462 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.45%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $76,458
• Equity at exit: $119,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $214,689
• Equity at exit: $241,372

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21869

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $782/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $198	+0% $156	+5% $113	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $102	+0% $156	+5% $209	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $194	base $156	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $150,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-05-01
   listed $150,000 Active 129-char remark
7. 2009-09-29
   soldstatus $6,000
8. 2009-07-28
   historical
9. 2008-10-08
   listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,209 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$36/mo · 54.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$782
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$154
• After-tax cash flow: $2,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

Livability — Vienna

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #18497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 889

Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 31% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.50%
• Current HPI: 336.2263
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1983.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records
• 2009-07-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-10-08 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $782 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.