218 Misty Point Ln

Newport News, VA 23603

$215,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Under Contract · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$283
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-219/mo
• Annual: $-2,631/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.2% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodside High (math 54% / reading 86%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,807 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newport News City Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?