218 Misty Point Ln · Newport News, VA 23603

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Condo public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1985 $283/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful townhome minutes away from the Newport News Shipyard, Fort Eustis and Langley military installations with easy access to I-64 and I-95. Featuring an expansive main level bedroom with full bath, a deck, skylights, a loft overlooking the 2 story family room. designated parking and a community club house with a boat slip, swimming pool and more. Interior pictures coming soon!

Key facts

• Community club house
• Main level bedroom
• Swimming pool

Tags

• MAIN LEVEL BEDROOM
• COMMUNITY CLUB HOUSE
• BOAT SLIP
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodside High (math 54% / reading 86%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,807 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newport News City Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,264 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,427
• Equity at exit: $86,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $40,915
• Equity at exit: $125,642

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23603

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,315/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$283
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $176,264

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
256 Misty Point Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	3.0	1570	$1,895	$1.21	1d	1	0.04mi
626 Chelsea Pl Newport News, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1190	$1,430	$1.20	1d	6	0.81mi
181 Lees Mill Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,499	$1.75	43d	1	1.22mi
203 Quarter Trl Unit F Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1167	$1,375	$1.18	43d	1	1.29mi
100 Banbury Ct Unit 00 201302 Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,799	$1.47	43d	1	1.37mi
100 Banbury Ct Unit 00 202207 Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,909	$1.56	7d	1	1.37mi
100 Banbury Ct Unit 00 103308 Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,799	$1.47	4d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $283 · $3,396/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $215,000 Active
3. 2026-03-10
   historical
4. 2026-02-25
   status Active
5. 2026-01-27
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-01-21
   status Active
7. 2026-01-19
   historical
8. 2025-10-19
   listed $215,000 Active
9. 2022-12-07
   soldstatus $150,000
10. 2022-11-07
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2022-09-29
    listed $165,000 Active
12. 2000-09-21
    soldstatus $71,000
13. 1991-03-22
    soldstatus $42,500
14. 1985-08-16
    soldstatus $81,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,315 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,315 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,315
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − HOA: −$3,396
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,507
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• City population: 178,950
• Population (ZIP): 3,428

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.14%
• Current HPI: 259.0921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+165.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $215,000 REINMLS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-07 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2022-09-29 Listed $165,000 REINMLS
• 2000-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 1991-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1985-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,315 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.