1202 Marconi St

Houston, TX 77019

$799,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,740 sqft · Built 1997 · Townhouse · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,528/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$1,839
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,581
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-982/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-982/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $785k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $753k (5.8% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($775k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $753k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wharton K-8 Dual Language Academy (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 627 students, 45% FRL); Lamar H S (math 38% / reading 65%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 3,125 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Houston ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,528/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 1844% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.