3210 Santa Maria Way #2

Orcutt, CA 93455

$124,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1968 · Manufactured · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $1,109/mo
• Annual: $13,303/yr
• Cap rate: 16.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.04%
• DSCR: 2.69
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#169 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Orcutt Union Elementary (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #414 of 1,400 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 2.6% in Orcutt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.