2604 Philadelphia Rd

Cedarville, AR 72956

$145,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,432/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $285/mo
• Annual: $3,426/yr
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#155 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Cedarville School District (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 238 in AR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $145k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.