9452 Crete Cir

Tuscaloosa, AL 35406

$414,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,262 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,797/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,171
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-379/mo
• Annual: $-4,542/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $115,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $414k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($402k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa City (urban): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #74 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rock Quarry Elementary School (math 68% / reading 85%, grade A, #12 of 627 statewide, top 2%, 605 students, 13% FRL); Northridge Middle School (math 29% / reading 57%, grade D-, #48 of 257 statewide, top 19%, 740 students, 39% FRL); Northridge High School (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #31 of 305 statewide, top 10%, 1,145 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 59% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tuscaloosa City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.