9452 Crete Cir · Tuscaloosa, AL 35406

$414,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2013 7,405 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $462k · 10% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to spacious living in Neptunes Cove at The Lakes of Northriver! With over 2600 sq ft of meticulously maintained space, the four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, formal dining, and large bonus room create a warm environment for both relaxation and entertaining! With sidewalks throughout, you can even take a short walk down to the neighborhood lake, walking trail, and playground! Call today to schedule your showing.

Key facts

• Neighborhood lake
• Walking trail
• Spacious living

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING
• NEIGHBORHOOD LAKE
• WALKING TRAIL
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Neptunes Cove
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $500 (about $41.67/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Concrete surfaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Cable available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Brick veneer construction
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with brick veneer
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Wood fencing; Pond and lake privileges; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Ceiling fans for cooling; Dual-zone cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows; Gas-log fireplace with gas starter in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $414k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa City (urban): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #74 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rock Quarry Elementary School (math 68% / reading 85%, grade A, #12 of 627 statewide, top 2%, 605 students, 13% FRL); Northridge Middle School (math 29% / reading 57%, grade D-, #48 of 257 statewide, top 19%, 740 students, 39% FRL); Northridge High School (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #31 of 305 statewide, top 10%, 1,145 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 59% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tuscaloosa City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($402k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,743 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,978
• List price: $414,000
• Delta: -10.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2348 Olympus Dr	0.08mi	3/3.0	2,395 (+6%)	2mo	$420,000	$175	84
9412 Crete Cir	0.05mi	3/3.0	2,435 (+8%)	2mo	$410,000	$168	83
9572 Crete Cir	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,279 (+1%)	2mo	$509,900	$224	83
2433 Vesta Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,202 (-3%)	6mo	$456,900	$207	81
9437 Crete Cir	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,425 (+7%)	0mo	$370,500	$153	80
9589 Crete Cir	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,279 (+1%)	5mo	$530,268	$233	79
2317 Olympus Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,123 (-6%)	7mo	$449,900	$212	77
9598 Crete Cir	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,083 (-8%)	2mo	$489,900	$235	71
9640 Crete Cir	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,083 (-8%)	4mo	$488,900	$235	70
9583 Crete Cir	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,083 (-8%)	2mo	$489,900	$235	70
9578 Crete Cir	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,012 (-11%)	6mo	$459,900	$229	66
9579 Crete Cir	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,083 (-8%)	7mo	$504,900	$242	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-91,320
• Equity at exit: $61,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-111,073
• Equity at exit: $35,795

Cash invested: $115,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35406

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,171
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,435/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,277

Max offer price $347,131

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,500
• Closing costs: $12,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9554 Crete Cir Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	3.0	2104	$3,150	$1.50	43d	1	0.18mi
7629 River Ridge Rd NE Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.5	2435	$3,400	$1.40	13d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $414,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $414,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $414,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $414,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $419,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    price $419,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $424,000 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-05-10
    price $424,000 548-char remark
19. 2026-04-26
    listed $429,000 Active 548-char remark
20. 2025-09-05
    price $439,000
21. 2025-07-30
    price $441,000
22. 2025-07-22
    price $442,500
23. 2025-07-06
    price $447,500
24. 2024-07-12
    soldstatus $429,900
25. 2024-07-03
    soldstatus $429,900 Closed

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome to spacious living in Neptunes Cove at The Lakes of Northriver! With over 2600 sq ft of meticulously maintained space, the four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, formal dining, and large bonus room create a warm environment for both relaxation and entertaining! With sidewalks throughout, you can even take a short walk down to the neighborhood lake, walking trail, and playground! Call today to schedule your showing.

26. 2024-06-06
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome to spacious living in Neptunes Cove at The Lakes of Northriver! With over 2600 sq ft of meticulously maintained space, the four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, formal dining, and large bonus room create a warm environment for both relaxation and entertaining! With sidewalks throughout, you can even take a short walk down to the neighborhood lake, walking trail, and playground! Call today to schedule your showing.

27. 2024-04-25
    listed $429,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome to spacious living in Neptunes Cove at The Lakes of Northriver! With over 2600 sq ft of meticulously maintained space, the four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, formal dining, and large bonus room create a warm environment for both relaxation and entertaining! With sidewalks throughout, you can even take a short walk down to the neighborhood lake, walking trail, and playground! Call today to schedule your showing.

28. 2021-06-07
    soldstatus $359,900
29. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $359,900
30. 2021-03-31
    listed $359,900
31. 2017-05-12
    soldstatus $273,915
32. 2016-10-11
    listed $274,915

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,190
• − Property taxes: −$2,435
• − Insurance: −$2,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,686
• − Management: −$2,686
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$12,044
• Taxable loss: −$12,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,891
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa City
• NCES district ID: 0103360
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,474
• Composite: 24.51/100
• National rank: #7647
• State rank: #74 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tuscaloosa, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,904
• Household income: $119,250
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 415.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.51%
• Current HPI: 221.088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+50.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $414,000 WAMLS
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $419,000 WAMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $424,000 WAMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $429,000 WAMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $439,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $441,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $442,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-06 Price Changed $447,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $429,900 Public Records
• 2024-07-03 Sold (MLS) $429,900 WAMLS
• 2024-06-06 Pending — WAMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $429,900 WAMLS
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $359,900 Public Records
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $359,900 WAMLS
• 2021-03-31 Listed $359,900 WAMLS
• 2017-05-12 Sold (MLS) $273,915 WAMLS
• 2016-10-11 Listed $274,915 WAMLS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,435 · +26.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.