3832 Victoria Dr

Pine Air, FL 33406

$205,000D+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,218 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,136/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$235
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-961/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-961/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (6.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $191k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#270 in FL, #4,410 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Berkshire Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 1,046 students, 70% FRL); Palm Springs Middle School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 1,521 students, 72% FRL); John I. Leonard High School (math 17% / reading 35%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 3,549 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 104 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.