3832 Victoria Dr · Pine Air, FL 33406

$205,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,218 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $307k · 33% under $235/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and see Beautiful modern completely remodeled townhouse with tile throughout, granite counter tops

Key facts

• $235 HOA
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-961/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (6.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#270 in FL, #4,410 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Berkshire Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 1,046 students, 70% FRL); Palm Springs Middle School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 1,521 students, 72% FRL); John I. Leonard High School (math 17% / reading 35%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 3,549 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 104 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,856 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,936
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1525 Woodbridge Lakes Cir	0.43mi	2/2.5	1,268 (+4%)	7mo	$319,000	$252	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-42,945
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-62,048
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33406

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,469/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,238

Max offer price $190,856

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-22	+0% $-80	+5% $-138	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-164	+0% $-80	+5% $4	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-28	base $-80	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
484 Springdale Cir Unit 48d Palm Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,100	$1.91	19d	1	0.88mi
2200 Springdale Blvd #214 Palm Springs, FL	1.0	1.5	756	$1,550	$2.05	5d	1	0.90mi
555 Kirk Rd Palm Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$2,749	$3.14	15d	1	0.92mi
555 Kirk Rd Palm Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$3,194	$3.65	24d	1	0.92mi
506 Davis Rd Unit 6 Palm Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	958	$1,700	$1.77	26d	1	0.92mi
701 Lori Dr #204 Palm Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	994	$1,700	$1.71	26d	1	0.94mi
564 Springdale Cir Palm Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1372	$2,500	$1.82	26d	1	0.95mi
504 Davis Rd #96 Palm Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,000	$1.85	26d	1	0.95mi
502 Davis Rd Palm Springs, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,675	$1.91	7d	2	0.97mi
300 Bonnie Blvd #144 Palm Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	702	$1,350	$1.92	26d	1	1.02mi
500 Bonnie Blvd #165 Palm Springs, FL	1.0	1.5	782	$1,350	$1.73	26d	1	1.04mi
225 Bonnie Blvd Palm Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	944	$1,850	$1.96	26d	2	1.06mi
225 Bonnie Blvd #116 Palm Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	988	$1,850	$1.87	21d	1	1.06mi
500 Village Green Cir W #214 Palm Springs, FL	1.0	1.5	764	$1,400	$1.83	4d	1	1.07mi
500 Village Green Cir W #107 Palm Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	836	$1,850	$2.21	24d	1	1.07mi
500 Village Green Cir W Palm Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	739	$1,850	$2.50	26d	2	1.08mi
500 Village Green Cir W Palm Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5	800	$1,850	$2.31	19d	2	1.08mi
240 Alemeda Dr Palm Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,850	$2.24	26d	3	1.09mi
2085 S Congress Ave Palm Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,595	$2.69	1d	12	1.10mi
441 San Mateo Dr Palm Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$3,000	$2.75	26d	1	1.11mi
247 Cypress Ln Unit 246-C12 Palm Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	7d	1	1.13mi
247 Cypress Ln Unit 246-C06 Palm Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	26d	1	1.13mi
246 Cypress Ln Lake Worth Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	26d	2	1.14mi
4403 Anna Ln Unit B Palm Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	740	$1,600	$2.16	10d	1	1.17mi
700 Village Green Ct Palm Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5	796	$1,800	$2.26	4d	3	1.17mi
400 Village Green Cir W #214 Palm Springs, FL	1.0	1.5	764	$1,400	$1.83	26d	1	1.19mi
4591 Purdy Ln Unit 1 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	26d	1	1.20mi
4591 Purdy Ln Unit 2 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	850	$3,000	$3.53	26d	1	1.20mi
1631 Cypress Way E Palm Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1365	$2,350	$1.72	7d	1	1.28mi
451 Cypress Way W Palm Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1365	$2,800	$2.05	26d	1	1.35mi
2185 E Carrol Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,800	$2.16	16d	1	1.38mi
2255 Ida Way West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	948	$2,200	$2.32	26d	1	1.39mi
1905 Meadow Ct West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1222	$7,000	$5.73	26d	1	1.40mi
4098 Linda Ln West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$2,465	$2.87	26d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $205,000
3. 2025-11-09
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-08
   listed $205,000 Active
5. 2021-05-12
   soldstatus $225,000
6. 2021-05-06
   soldstatus $230,000 Closed 103-char remark

   Show marketing remark (103 chars)

   Come and see Beautiful modern completely remodeled townhouse with tile throughout, granite counter tops

7. 2021-04-04
   historical Active Under Contract 103-char remark

   Show marketing remark (103 chars)

   Come and see Beautiful modern completely remodeled townhouse with tile throughout, granite counter tops

8. 2021-03-29
   status Active 103-char remark

   Show marketing remark (103 chars)

   Come and see Beautiful modern completely remodeled townhouse with tile throughout, granite counter tops

9. 2021-03-19
   historical Active Under Contract 103-char remark

   Show marketing remark (103 chars)

   Come and see Beautiful modern completely remodeled townhouse with tile throughout, granite counter tops

10. 2021-03-11
    listed $230,000 Active 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Come and see Beautiful modern completely remodeled townhouse with tile throughout, granite counter tops

11. 2019-05-08
    soldstatus $183,000
12. 2006-07-13
    soldstatus $165,000
13. 1997-05-21
    soldstatus $58,600
14. 1991-03-01
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,469 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,469 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$4,469
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $53/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Air

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #4410

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,945
• Household income: $77,075
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 768.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 33% Two or more races 29% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 17% Dominican 5% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 49% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -384.39%
• Current HPI: 441.2523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+247.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-09 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $205,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-06 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-04-04 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2021-03-29 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2021-03-19 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2021-03-11 Listed $230,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 1997-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $58,600 Public Records
• 1991-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,469 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.