19 Duvall Ct

Pike Creek, DE 19808

$410,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,450 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$473
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $-371/mo
• Annual: $-4,447/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $114,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#3 in DE, #2,567 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D, commute F.
• Red Clay Consolidated School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #12 of 26 in DE (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #21 of 105 statewide, top 21%, 476 students, 0% FRL); Skyline Middle School (math 14% / reading 20%, grade F, #32 of 36 statewide, top 89%, 475 students, 0% FRL); Mckean (Thomas) High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #38 of 40 statewide, top 100%, 927 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,367 units permitted in New Castle County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Castle County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $320k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.3% in Pike Creek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.