2929 Water Lily Dr

Corpus Christi, TX 78415

$270,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,249 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,559/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$453
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-637/mo
• Annual: $-7,644/yr
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.11%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (41.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (42.3% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Corpus Christi ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #562 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Park G/T (math 85% / reading 90%, grade A+, #6 of 4,322 statewide, top 0%, 609 students, 29% FRL); Adkins Middle (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 956 students, 48% FRL); Carroll H S (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,851 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Corpus Christi ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.