2929 Water Lily Dr · Corpus Christi, TX 78415

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,249 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1986 6,077 sqft lot $216/sqft · 83% above area Est $242k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large home close to parks, churches and schools. Enjoy your new electric bill with energy saving solar panels. Alley entry parking with gate on rollers, wrap parking in front. Updated kitchen, closed in patio, separate utility room. Get creative with the extra rooms in converted garage. one Could be a bedroom, the other room could be a large over sized pantry. Who doesn't want that. There's a wood burning fireplace, and a Storage shed on property will stay. Comfortable home with plenty of room to expand. Come take a look.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Closed in patio
• 6,077 sq ft lot

Tags

• ALLEY ENTRY PARKING WITH GATE
• WRAP PARKING IN FRONT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CLOSED IN PATIO
• SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (41.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (42.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Corpus Christi ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #562 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Park G/T (math 85% / reading 90%, grade A+, #6 of 4,322 statewide, top 0%, 609 students, 29% FRL); Adkins Middle (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 956 students, 48% FRL); Carroll H S (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,851 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Corpus Christi ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,896 (42.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.11%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,294
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: 11.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3109 Crestwater Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+7%)	1mo	$229,900	$172	78
2925 Hilldale Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+8%)	4mo	$199,900	$149	77
6113 Choctaw Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+6%)	2mo	$248,000	$188	77
5705 Crest Pebble Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,349 (+8%)	2mo	$178,000	$132	72
6177 Angus Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-3%)	4mo	$135,850	$112	66
3125 Dante Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,299 (+4%)	6mo	$225,000	$173	66
2565 Crestlea Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+5%)	6mo	$219,000	$167	65
5738 Crestgrove Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+4%)	4mo	$215,000	$166	62
6125 Olivia St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+13%)	3mo	$280,685	$199	49
2510 Crestlea Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,075 (-14%)	3mo	$198,000	$184	47
5730 Crestwood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+14%)	5mo	$220,000	$154	47
5801 Crestgrove Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+13%)	5mo	$234,500	$166	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-85,359
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-130,759
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78415

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 434
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,082/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $157,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-484	-5% $-561	+0% $-637	+5% $-713	+10% $-790
Rent	-10% $-760	-5% $-699	+0% $-637	+5% $-575	+10% $-514
Rate	-1.0pp $-501	-0.5pp $-568	base $-637	+0.5pp $-707	+1.0pp $-778

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3102 Crestwater Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,550	$1.32	45d	1	0.17mi
5902 Ayers St Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,349	$1.17	45d	1	0.39mi
5541 Candace St Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,795	$1.21	15d	1	0.40mi
6013 Beardmore Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	23d	1	0.42mi
2509 Persimmon St Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,550	$1.20	45d	1	0.50mi
2510 Cresterrace Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	45d	1	0.59mi
2709 Milo St Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,700	$1.52	15d	1	0.87mi
5623 Carroll Ln Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	45d	1	0.92mi
3619 La Paz Dr Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	903	$1,195	$1.32	23d	1	0.97mi
3620 La Paz Dr Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,195	$1.37	15d	1	0.98mi
3715 La Paz Dr Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	906	$1,295	$1.43	15d	1	1.09mi
3803 Caravelle Pkwy Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	816	$1,040	$1.27	15d	57	1.11mi
3802 Saratoga Blvd Corpus Christi, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1258	$2,319	$1.84	15d	1	1.32mi
3942 Holly Rd Corpus Christi, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,112	$1.28	15d	11	1.34mi
4818 Kendall Dr Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	1169	$1,250	$1.07	15d	1	1.36mi
4014 Holly Rd Unit 02 Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	1070	$895	$0.84	45d	1	1.43mi
4040 Schanen Blvd Corpus Christi, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	772	$774	$1.00	45d	15	1.44mi
4018 Holly Rd Unit 08 Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	1070	$895	$0.84	45d	1	1.44mi
4022 Montego Dr Corpus Christi, TX	2.0	1.0	1070	$850	$0.79	45d	1	1.45mi
4942 Anthony St Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,595	$1.57	15d	1	1.49mi
4013 Kingston Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,500	$1.72	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $270,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $270,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    price $270,000 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Large home close to parks, churches and schools. Enjoy your new electric bill with energy saving solar panels. Alley entry parking with gate on rollers, wrap parking in front. Updated kitchen, closed in patio, separate utility room. Get creative with the extra rooms in converted garage. one Could be a bedroom, the other room could be a large over sized pantry. Who doesn't want that. There's a wood burning fireplace, and a Storage shed on property will stay. Comfortable home with plenty of room to expand. Come take a look.

18. 2026-02-14
    listed $275,000 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Large home close to parks, churches and schools. Enjoy your new electric bill with energy saving solar panels. Alley entry parking with gate on rollers, wrap parking in front. Updated kitchen, closed in patio, separate utility room. Get creative with the extra rooms in converted garage. one Could be a bedroom, the other room could be a large over sized pantry. Who doesn't want that. There's a wood burning fireplace, and a Storage shed on property will stay. Comfortable home with plenty of room to expand. Come take a look.

19. 2019-01-07
    historical 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Clean and contemporary is the look and feel of this three bedroom and two bath home in the Crestmont Neighborhood. The home offers neat design lines and an abundance of natural light. The new homeowners will enjoy a large and gated backyard with shade and minimal lawn maintenance. The storage space is impressive and will give any new homeowner a stress-free place for unpacking boxes and settling in at their convenience. Modern stainless steel appliances, cool colors, and ceramic tiles make this home move-in ready! Bring all offers!

20. 2018-12-28
    soldstatus Closed 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Clean and contemporary is the look and feel of this three bedroom and two bath home in the Crestmont Neighborhood. The home offers neat design lines and an abundance of natural light. The new homeowners will enjoy a large and gated backyard with shade and minimal lawn maintenance. The storage space is impressive and will give any new homeowner a stress-free place for unpacking boxes and settling in at their convenience. Modern stainless steel appliances, cool colors, and ceramic tiles make this home move-in ready! Bring all offers!

21. 2018-12-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Clean and contemporary is the look and feel of this three bedroom and two bath home in the Crestmont Neighborhood. The home offers neat design lines and an abundance of natural light. The new homeowners will enjoy a large and gated backyard with shade and minimal lawn maintenance. The storage space is impressive and will give any new homeowner a stress-free place for unpacking boxes and settling in at their convenience. Modern stainless steel appliances, cool colors, and ceramic tiles make this home move-in ready! Bring all offers!

22. 2018-12-12
    status Pending 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Clean and contemporary is the look and feel of this three bedroom and two bath home in the Crestmont Neighborhood. The home offers neat design lines and an abundance of natural light. The new homeowners will enjoy a large and gated backyard with shade and minimal lawn maintenance. The storage space is impressive and will give any new homeowner a stress-free place for unpacking boxes and settling in at their convenience. Modern stainless steel appliances, cool colors, and ceramic tiles make this home move-in ready! Bring all offers!

23. 2018-12-02
    historical Option Period 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Clean and contemporary is the look and feel of this three bedroom and two bath home in the Crestmont Neighborhood. The home offers neat design lines and an abundance of natural light. The new homeowners will enjoy a large and gated backyard with shade and minimal lawn maintenance. The storage space is impressive and will give any new homeowner a stress-free place for unpacking boxes and settling in at their convenience. Modern stainless steel appliances, cool colors, and ceramic tiles make this home move-in ready! Bring all offers!

24. 2018-11-20
    listed $149,900 Active 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Clean and contemporary is the look and feel of this three bedroom and two bath home in the Crestmont Neighborhood. The home offers neat design lines and an abundance of natural light. The new homeowners will enjoy a large and gated backyard with shade and minimal lawn maintenance. The storage space is impressive and will give any new homeowner a stress-free place for unpacking boxes and settling in at their convenience. Modern stainless steel appliances, cool colors, and ceramic tiles make this home move-in ready! Bring all offers!

25. 2011-12-06
    soldstatus
26. 2011-12-05
    soldstatus
27. 2011-11-09
    listed $95,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,082 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,941 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$859/yr (+$72/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,082
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$12,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corpus Christi ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815270
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,672
• Composite: 28.27/100
• National rank: #6793
• State rank: #562 of 826 in TX

Livability — Corpus Christi

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2404

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Corpus Christi, TX
• County: Nueces County · 296,836 people
• City population: 296,836
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,080
• Household income: $54,990
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1730.0

Population outlook (Nueces County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 418,037 people
• By 2030: 447,123 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 505,911 · +21.0%
• By 2050: 567,522 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 729,686 · +74.6%
• By 2100: 847,087 · +102.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 41% White 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Nueces

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 43.8% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.4pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.20%
• Current HPI: 158.011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+182.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $270,000 CBMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $275,000 CBMLS
• 2019-01-07 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2018-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-28 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2018-12-12 Pending — CBMLS
• 2018-12-02 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2018-11-20 Listed $149,900 CBMLS
• 2011-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-05 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2011-11-09 Listed $95,500 CBMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,082 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.