1316-1326 Vallejo St

San Francisco, CA 94109

$3,700,000D+

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,088 sqft · Built 1908 · MultiFamily · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $32,605/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19,403
• Tax + insurance: −$6,167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,847
• Net cashflow: $188/mo
• Annual: $2,257/yr
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $1,036,000

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $3.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $31/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.26M (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.26M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $211k of equity ($26k loan paydown + $186k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $1.04M cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$339k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $32,605/mo this rent would consume 369% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 5272% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?