431 5th Ave E #1

West Fargo, ND 58078

$194,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,140/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $143/mo
• Annual: $1,721/yr
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in ND, #2,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• West Fargo 6 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 53 in ND (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: L E Berger Elementary School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #173 of 236 statewide, top 76%, 370 students, 72% FRL); Cheney Middle School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #18 of 35 statewide, top 50%, 1,012 students, 43% FRL); West Fargo High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #71 of 144 statewide, top 52%, 1,423 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 24% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,218 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $195k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in West Fargo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.