431 5th Ave E #1 · West Fargo, ND 58078

$194,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Townhouse · 70 Days on market

Built 1973 0.43 ac lot $200/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is your opportunity to own your own home! This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and basement. If you are willing to do the work, this home may be for you. Needs updating and repairs, but you can see the possibilities.

Key facts

• New vanity
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED OUTLETS
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW VANITY
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in West Fargo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in ND, #2,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• West Fargo 6 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 53 in ND (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Fargo High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #71 of 144 statewide, top 52%, 1,423 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,218 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (410 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $195k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $183,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,609
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $17,133
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58078

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $211	+0% $143	+5% $76	+10% $9
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $59	+0% $143	+5% $228	+10% $312
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $193	base $143	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1702 2nd Ave E West Fargo, ND	4.0	2.0	1692	$2,150	$1.27	14d	1	0.97mi
4949 16th Ave S Fargo, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,585	$1.69	14d	7	1.34mi
1632 51st St S Fargo, ND	3.0	1.0–2.5	1352	$2,295	$1.70	22d	22	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-03-26
   price $194,900
4. 2026-02-11
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2025-11-23
   historical
6. 2025-09-03
   listed $175,000 Active
7. 2018-04-09
   soldstatus $71,388 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   This is your opportunity to own your own home! This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and basement. If you are willing to do the work, this home may be for you. Needs updating and repairs, but you can see the possibilities.

8. 2018-03-02
   listed $81,400 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   This is your opportunity to own your own home! This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and basement. If you are willing to do the work, this home may be for you. Needs updating and repairs, but you can see the possibilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$1,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$316
• After-tax cash flow: $2,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Fargo 6
• NCES district ID: 3819410
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,914
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4628
• State rank: #26 of 53 in ND

Livability — West Fargo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Fargo, ND
• County: Cass County · 177,143 people
• City population: 40,631
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 40,631
• Household income: $91,040
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1154.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,771 people
• By 2030: 251,835 · +12.5%
• By 2040: 311,816 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 378,694 · +69.2%
• By 2075: 571,386 · +155.3%
• By 2100: 769,727 · +244.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 28% Lithuanian 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 44.9% · R 53.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+2.7 2016: R+10.7 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.47%
• Current HPI: 181.6497
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+139.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $194,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listed $175,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-09 Sold (MLS) $71,388 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-02 Listed $81,400 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid