2973 Daniels Creek Rd

Collinsville, VA 24078

$134,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,118/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $74/mo
• Annual: $889/yr
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($889/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#265 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Henry County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #78 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Meadow View Elementary (math 39% / reading 57%, grade D, #787 of 1,108 statewide, top 72%, 674 students, 88% FRL); Fieldale-Collinsville Middle (math 43% / reading 76%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 805 students, 99% FRL); Bassett High (math 54% / reading 78%, grade B, #200 of 319 statewide, top 64%, 1,107 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 62% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.9% in Collinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.