2973 Daniels Creek Rd · Collinsville, VA 24078

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1951 0.42 ac lot $96/sqft · 21% below area Est $171k · 21% under ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! This is the first time this home has ever been for sale its been single family owned since built!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Large basement
• Back deck

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• BACK DECK
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LIGHTENING STRIKE PROTECTION
• LARGE BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($889/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.9% in Collinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#265 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Henry County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #78 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Meadow View Elementary (math 39% / reading 57%, grade D, #787 of 1,108 statewide, top 72%, 674 students, 88% FRL); Fieldale-Collinsville Middle (math 43% / reading 76%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 805 students, 99% FRL); Bassett High (math 54% / reading 78%, grade B, #200 of 319 statewide, top 64%, 1,107 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 62% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,844 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,901
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -21.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Halifax Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (-1%)	2mo	$184,000	$132	81
5067 Kings Mountain Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,379 (-2%)	4mo	$175,000	$127	80
206 Spring Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,390 (-1%)	4mo	$68,500	$49	73
82 Cherward St	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,248 (-12%)	6mo	$144,000	$115	66
71 Aloha Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,266 (-10%)	15mo	$100,000	$79	57
112 Taylor Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+1%)	22mo	$187,000	$131	40
55 James St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-12%)	13mo	$159,900	$128	37
276 Taylor Rd	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,288 (-9%)	19mo	$97,500	$76	35
148 Patsy Ave	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,296 (-8%)	10mo	$89,900	$69	33
83 Meadow Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,547 (+10%)	10mo	$384,000	$248	32
171 Randolph St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+11%)	9mo	$199,000	$127	31
39 Taylor Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,254 (-11%)	21mo	$140,000	$112	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,202
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,144
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24078

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,025

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $112	+0% $74	+5% $36	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $30	+0% $74	+5% $118	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $108	base $74	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 595-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

3. 2026-03-18
   price $134,900 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

4. 2026-03-18
   price $134,900 595-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

5. 2026-02-16
   price $139,900 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

6. 2026-02-16
   price $139,900 595-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

7. 2026-01-05
   price $144,900 595-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

8. 2025-12-08
   listed $144,900 Active 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

9. 2025-12-08
   listed $149,900 Active 595-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   YES you read that price tag right, a stunning conforming 2 bed home with possibility of a 3rd , all one level living home with carport , back deck, large backyard and detached garage for only $149,900. The home has 3 year old; furnace, water heater, garbage disposal and stainless steel appliances! Property comes with washer and dryer , a 200 amp electrical panel upgrade with lightening strike protection, and large basement with a garage attached underneath. This home offers so much it just needs you! Meadowview Elementary School Fieldale-Collinsville Middle School Bassett High School

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 100.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$1,432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$344
• After-tax cash flow: $1,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,579
• Composite: 47.02/100
• National rank: #2345
• State rank: #78 of 131 in VA

Livability — Collinsville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #9378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Collinsville, VA
• City population: 7,217
• Population (ZIP): 7,217

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,903 people
• By 2030: 44,141 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 38,687 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 33,742 · -28.1%
• By 2075: 25,720 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 19,868 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.3% · R 66.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.80%
• Current HPI: 166.2533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MHPCAR
• 2026-05-18 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $134,900 MHPCAR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $134,900 MLSRV
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $139,900 MHPCAR
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $139,900 MLSRV
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $144,900 MLSRV
• 2025-12-08 Listed $149,900 MLSRV
• 2025-12-08 Listed $144,900 MHPCAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $551 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.