19 Timber Mill Cir

Stamford, CT 06903

$950,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,076 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax + insurance: −$1,468
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,995
• Net cashflow: $1,047/mo
• Annual: $12,567/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $266,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $950k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($936k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $936k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#98 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stamford School District (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #103 of 153 in CT (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roxbury School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #354 of 553 statewide, top 64%, 562 students, 53% FRL); Scofield Middle School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade D, #98 of 175 statewide, top 57%, 584 students, 50% FRL); Westhill High School (math 33% / reading 50%, grade F, #102 of 194 statewide, top 53%, 2,265 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.