19 Timber Mill Cir · Stamford, CT 06903

$950,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1965 1.60 ac lot $233/sqft · 9% below area Est $1043k · 9% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST - SELLERS WILL REVIEW OFFERS ON TUESDAY 5/19 AT 1200. Perfectly positioned on a quiet cul-de-sac in the highly sought-after Saw Mill neighborhood, this unique ranch with a contemporary flair and open floor plan offers a seamless blend of comfort and style. Enjoy picturesque pond views from the expansive deck, rebuilt with Brazilian Ipe wood-ideal for relaxing afternoons-or gather around the stone fire pit for evenings with friends. The main level features a spacious living room with fireplace and a formal dining room, both with French doors opening to the deck. A newer European-style eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room. The primary suite, along w

Key facts

• 1.6 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $100 annual fee; Association fee includes grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Energy Star rated features; Generator ready; Thermopane windows
• Home design: Single-family home; Color: Bermuda Sand
• Construction: Frame construction; Brick and cedar siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Underground utilities; Shed; Fruit trees; Deck; Exterior lighting; Stone wall; French doors; Patio; Pond access / waterfront; Treed, rocky lot on a cul-de-sac; Direct waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heat (oil); Oil fuel with 40-gallon hot water tank; Programmable thermostat; Central air
• Interior features: Auto garage door opener; Cable pre-wired; Central vacuum; Humidifier; Open floor plan; Security system; Home automation with locks and security system; Two fireplaces; In-law apartment possible with lower level access; Has attic with pull-down stairs; Full, heated, fully finished basement with interior access, storage and walk-out; includes livable space
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $950k).
• Recommended offer: $936k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#98 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stamford School District (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #103 of 153 in CT (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roxbury School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #354 of 553 statewide, top 64%, 562 students, 53% FRL); Scofield Middle School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade D, #98 of 175 statewide, top 57%, 584 students, 50% FRL); Westhill High School (math 33% / reading 50%, grade F, #102 of 194 statewide, top 53%, 2,265 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($936k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $935,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,043,181
• List price: $950,000
• Delta: -8.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
494 Sawmill Rd	0.18mi	4/3.0	4,402 (+8%)	5mo	$910,000	$207	74
65 Malibu Rd	0.32mi	4/3.0	3,820 (-6%)	6mo	$1,050,000	$275	69
732 Den Rd	0.57mi	4/3.5	4,154 (+2%)	8mo	$1,285,000	$309	61
288 Shelter Rock Rd	0.35mi	4/3.5	3,665 (-10%)	10mo	$1,700,000	$464	57
277 Dundee Rd	0.48mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,995 (-2%)	9mo	$1,155,000	$289	56
25 Mill Stone Cir	0.32mi	4/2.5	3,472 (-15%)	6mo	$1,100,000	$317	54
21 Easthill Rd	0.60mi	4/3.0	4,409 (+8%)	7mo	$1,300,000	$295	53
230 Butternut Ln	0.44mi	3/3.5 (-1)	4,352 (+7%)	11mo	$1,375,000	$316	52
53 Pinnacle Rock Rd	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,804 (-7%)	10mo	$1,270,000	$334	49
27 Easthill Rd	0.61mi	4/4.0	4,343 (+7%)	11mo	$1,250,000	$288	48
146 Ridgecrest Rd	0.70mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,188 (+3%)	11mo	$2,005,000	$479	42
51 Boulder Brook Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	4,558 (+12%)	10mo	$1,090,000	$239	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-87,163
• Equity at exit: $141,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $10,302
• Equity at exit: $82,139

Cash invested: $266,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06903

• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax from tax record: −$1,072 /mo · $12,864/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,995
• Net cashflow: $1,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,174

Max offer price $950,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,585	-5% $1,316	+0% $1,047	+5% $778	+10% $509
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $672	+0% $1,047	+5% $1,423	+10% $1,798
Rate	-1.0pp $1,526	-0.5pp $1,289	base $1,047	+0.5pp $801	+1.0pp $551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,500
• Closing costs: $28,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
266 W Haviland Ln Stamford, CT	4.0	3.5	4560	$9,500	$2.08	25d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $950,000 Under Contract 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $950,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 18 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $950,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-15
   listed $950,000 Active 1445-char remark
5. 2026-05-14
   historical $950,000 1445-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,864 · $1,072/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,597 · $1,383/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,733/yr (+$311/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $114,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,215
• − Property taxes: −$12,864
• − Insurance: −$4,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,120
• − Management: −$9,120
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$27,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $13,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stamford School District
• NCES district ID: 0904320
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,843
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5010
• State rank: #103 of 153 in CT

Livability — Stamford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #7716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stamford, CT
• City population: 123,058
• Population (ZIP): 13,630

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -247.05%
• Current HPI: 163.3073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $950,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $950,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $12,864 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.