815 124th St SW #122

Lake Stickney, WA 98204

$329,950F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,534/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-563/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $92,386

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-563/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (23.2% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $253k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#192 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Mukilteo School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #111 of 291 in WA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $330k implies a 633% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Lake Stickney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.