815 124th St SW #122 · Lake Stickney, WA 98204

$329,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2020 Est $236k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer 2020 Marlette collection is move in ready with TONS of upgrades! This corner lot home features mature landscaping, updated fencing and fabulous curb appeal. Air conditioning is installed and all ready for summer with covered front patio and hot tub. Both living room and dining room are spacious with great natural light, vaulted ceilings and large windows. Continuous luxury vinyl flooring throughout the home with three skylights. The primary bedroom features a large walk-in closet and en-suite with upgraded granite counters, double vanity and extended tiled shower. Lovely den/office with built-in desk and storage. Well laid out kitchen with granite counters, SS appliances and walk-in p

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Updated fencing
• Covered front patio

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• UPDATED FENCING
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• HOT TUB
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Double pane windows (energy efficient)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional; Land lease amount (monthly): $1,128
• HOA & community: Mariner Village park with ~165 homes; Senior community; Park amenities: BBQs, clubhouse, common area, exercise room, RV parking, security gate; Pets allowed: cats and dogs (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; RV parking in park
• Security: Security gate; Park security gate
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Electric water heater; Public water; Snohomish County PUD power; Comcast cable and internet connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Entry on corner lot; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Foundation on pillars/posts/piers with tie downs; Manufactured after 06/15/1976 (CMH Mfg West Inc. model 55MJC30523CH20)
• Exterior features: Wood products exterior; Awnings; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Corner lot; RV parking available behind home

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Range/stove
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 three-quarter baths (2 showers)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Water heater; Accessible approach with ramp, accessible bath, accessible bedroom, accessible central living area, accessible kitchen, accessible utility; Vaulted ceilings; Drapes; Walk-in closet; Walk-in pantry; Den/office, dining room, entry, living room, kitchen with eating space, utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-563/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Lake Stickney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#192 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Mukilteo School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #111 of 291 in WA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $330k implies a 633% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $253,405 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,800
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 124th St SW #94	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-1%)	11mo	$219,300	$123	84
815 124th St SW #137	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (-4%)	9mo	$240,000	$139	80
815 124th St SW #163	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,675 (-7%)	17mo	$220,000	$131	74
815 124th St SW #17	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,968 (+9%)	8mo	$65,000	$33	73
815 124th St SW #14	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-10%)	16mo	$319,500	$197	65
815 124th St SW #48	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-15%)	23mo	$146,500	$96	51
11500 Meridian Ave S #49	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-10%)	3mo	$245,000	$151	45
11500 Meridian Ave S #101	0.68mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,782 (-1%)	16mo	$170,000	$95	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-63,986
• Equity at exit: $49,197

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-88,690
• Equity at exit: $28,528

Cash invested: $92,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98204

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,173/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,593

Max offer price $321,658

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,488
• Closing costs: $9,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12522 8th Ave W Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$2,146	$2.13	5d	8	0.16mi
12600 4th Ave W Everett, WA	2.0	2.5	1336	$2,295	$1.72	17d	1	0.24mi
222 124th St SW Unit A2 Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,975	$1.91	5d	1	0.32mi
12121 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,245	$2.01	3d	18	0.36mi
12433 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$2,274	$2.12	2d	32	0.37mi
11727 12th Ave W #77 Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1533	$3,100	$2.02	22d	1	0.45mi
11719 12th Ave W Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,800	$1.83	44d	1	0.46mi
13004 Meridian Ave S Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,961	$1.91	2d	1	0.62mi
305 127th St SE Unit A Everett, WA	2.0	2.5	1456	$2,649	$1.82	44d	1	0.78mi
4 112th St SW Unit A Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1661	$3,300	$1.99	44d	1	0.85mi
12118 Highway 99 Everett, WA	1.0–5.0	1.0–3.0	1117	$1,941	$1.74	2d	5	0.87mi
13117 3rd Ave SE Unit J1 Everett, WA	3.0	3.0	1659	$3,249	$1.96	44d	1	0.92mi
11026 Meridian Dr SE Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	44d	1	0.96mi
418 138th Pl SW Everett, WA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,000	$1.88	44d	1	0.96mi
11625 Center Rd Unit C Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1608	$3,200	$1.99	44d	1	1.03mi
13921 12th Pl W Lynnwood, WA	3.0	3.5	2175	$3,600	$1.66	24d	1	1.04mi
2301 116th St SW Unit E Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,595	$1.85	44d	1	1.06mi
2020 Hollow Dale Pl Unit A Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,650	$1.74	44d	1	1.15mi
609 142nd St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1646	$3,399	$2.07	44d	1	1.16mi
12318 26th Pl W Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1558	$3,000	$1.93	5d	1	1.21mi
13730 Manor Way Unit F2 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	3.5	1626	$3,400	$2.09	44d	1	1.26mi
13027 27th Pl W Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	2113	$3,300	$1.56	15d	1	1.30mi
13510 N Creek Dr Mill Creek, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,642	$1.61	3d	1	1.30mi
1301 124th Pl SE Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1876	$3,500	$1.87	24d	1	1.35mi
10115 Holly Dr Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,095	$2.09	2d	24	1.40mi
10115 Holly Dr Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,278	$2.27	10d	22	1.40mi
10111 9th Ave W Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1098	$2,550	$2.32	5d	4	1.41mi
14509 16th Pl W Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.5	1920	$3,500	$1.82	5d	1	1.44mi
14615 Madison Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1288	$1,899	$1.47	5d	1	1.48mi
1011 147th St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.5	2243	$3,500	$1.56	44d	1	1.48mi
1830 145th St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.5	1873	$3,500	$1.87	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $329,950 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,950 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,950 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,950 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $329,950 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $329,950 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $329,950 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,950 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $329,950 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,234 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,061/yr (+$88/mo · 48.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,482
• − Property taxes: −$2,173
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,433
• − Management: −$2,433
• − Depreciation: −$9,599
• Taxable loss: −$6,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,526
• After-tax cash flow: $963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mukilteo School District
• NCES district ID: 5305430
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $60,807
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #4733
• State rank: #111 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Stickney

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #5224

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 45,130
• Household income: $68,513
• Rent vs Own: 66.4% rent · 33.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2874.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 14% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 4% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 18% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Vietnamese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -540.03%
• Current HPI: 321.7923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.70%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+1366.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $329,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-06 Sold (MLS) $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-25 Listed $48,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-04-18 Sold (MLS) $22,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-24 Listed $22,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,173 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.