3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,800 sqft ·
Built 2021
· Manufactured
· Pending
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,307/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,153
Tax + insurance
−$144
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$274
Net cashflow
$-265/mo
Annual
$-3,176/yr
Cap rate
4.85%
Cash-on-cash
-5.16%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.59%
Cash to close
$61,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (21.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (40.6% below list).
Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $131k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#118 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Polk County (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #44 of 139 in TN (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Polk County High School (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #104 of 332 statewide, top 33%, 443 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 211 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Benton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1YHTWY3BGG5ZJP
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29