22 Blue Point Rd

Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$439,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · Built 1936 · SingleFamily · Active · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$1,061
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$884
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-503/yr
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $123,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-503/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $421k (4.3% below list).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?