22 Blue Point Rd · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$439,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1936 6,098 sqft lot $284/sqft · 12% below area Est $503k · 12% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Coastal Living in Mastic Beach, a waterfront community on the rise with exciting improvements underway, including the Beechwood Community Development project in our downtown main street area! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home features beautiful water views and a short walk to the shoreline. Attached sunroom offers the perfect place for relaxing with morning coffee while the detached one car garage adds everyday convenience. Other features include kitchen skylight , propane gas fireplace in living room, propane hot water heater, propane cooking, oil heat, separate laundry room with newer washer and dryer, and the very spacious primary bedroom which offers potential for conversion to a studio apartment with proper permits of course.. Ideal for extended living or additional income. Would also make a great artist sanctuary room with beautiful waterviews from the balcony!! Home was raised in the 80s and has a 4ft crawl space! No water entry inside even during storm Sandy! A great opportunity to own near the water and embrace the laid back beach lifestyle. Enjoy easy access to the free boat ramp at the end of the street too! Grab your kayak-Be the 1st!

Key facts

• Balcony
• Attached sunroom
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• SHORT WALK TO SHORELINE
• ATTACHED SUNROOM
• DETACHED ONE CAR GARAGE
• ARTIST SANCTUARY ROOM
• BALCONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-503/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $421k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $502,575
• List price: $439,900
• Delta: -12.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Manhasset Dr	0.18mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,618 (+4%)	3mo	$456,000	$282	74
6 Lafayette Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-3%)	5mo	$572,000	$381	63
107 Cranberry Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-4%)	12mo	$430,000	$288	59
159 Baybright Dr E	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-3%)	11mo	$585,000	$390	52
165 Lynbrook Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,520 (-2%)	10mo	$299,900	$197	50
120 Lynbrook Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,386 (-10%)	9mo	$450,000	$325	50
31 Roneck Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	1mo	$655,000	$468	49
99 Lynbrook Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,357 (-12%)	7mo	$375,000	$276	49
87 Bayview Dr	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,688 (+9%)	8mo	$442,500	$262	48
193 Laurelton Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-13%)	5mo	$465,000	$345	48
118 Cranberry Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-13%)	8mo	$451,000	$334	47
2 Lafayette Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,334 (-14%)	2mo	$400,000	$300	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $237,177
• Equity at exit: $396,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $701,074
• Equity at exit: $854,629

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,011/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$884
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,264

Max offer price $432,496

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	3d	1	0.66mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	0.69mi
126 Trafalgar Dr Shirley, NY	3.0	2.5	2100	$4,500	$2.14	1d	1	0.75mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	1.08mi
44 Pine Tree Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	1d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,900 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,900 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,900 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $439,900 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $439,990 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $439,990 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,990 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,990 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,990 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,990 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $439,990 1172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

    Welcome to Coastal Living in Mastic Beach, a waterfront community on the rise with exciting improvements underway, including the Beechwood Community Development project in our downtown main street area! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home features beautiful water views and a short walk to the shoreline. Attached sunroom offers the perfect place for relaxing with morning coffee while the detached one car garage adds everyday convenience. Other features include kitchen skylight , propane gas fireplace in living room, propane hot water heater, propane cooking, oil heat, separate laundry room with newer washer and dryer, and the very spacious primary bedroom which offers potential for conversion to a studio apartment with proper permits of course.. Ideal for extended living or additional income. Would also make a great artist sanctuary room with beautiful waterviews from the balcony!! Home was raised in the 80s and has a 4ft crawl space! No water entry inside even during storm Sandy! A great opportunity to own near the water and embrace the laid back beach lifestyle. Enjoy easy access to the free boat ramp at the end of the street too! Grab your kayak-Be the 1st!

17. 2026-03-27
    price $449,500 1172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

    Welcome to Coastal Living in Mastic Beach, a waterfront community on the rise with exciting improvements underway, including the Beechwood Community Development project in our downtown main street area! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home features beautiful water views and a short walk to the shoreline. Attached sunroom offers the perfect place for relaxing with morning coffee while the detached one car garage adds everyday convenience. Other features include kitchen skylight , propane gas fireplace in living room, propane hot water heater, propane cooking, oil heat, separate laundry room with newer washer and dryer, and the very spacious primary bedroom which offers potential for conversion to a studio apartment with proper permits of course.. Ideal for extended living or additional income. Would also make a great artist sanctuary room with beautiful waterviews from the balcony!! Home was raised in the 80s and has a 4ft crawl space! No water entry inside even during storm Sandy! A great opportunity to own near the water and embrace the laid back beach lifestyle. Enjoy easy access to the free boat ramp at the end of the street too! Grab your kayak-Be the 1st!

18. 2026-02-02
    listed $450,000 Active 1172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

    Welcome to Coastal Living in Mastic Beach, a waterfront community on the rise with exciting improvements underway, including the Beechwood Community Development project in our downtown main street area! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home features beautiful water views and a short walk to the shoreline. Attached sunroom offers the perfect place for relaxing with morning coffee while the detached one car garage adds everyday convenience. Other features include kitchen skylight , propane gas fireplace in living room, propane hot water heater, propane cooking, oil heat, separate laundry room with newer washer and dryer, and the very spacious primary bedroom which offers potential for conversion to a studio apartment with proper permits of course.. Ideal for extended living or additional income. Would also make a great artist sanctuary room with beautiful waterviews from the balcony!! Home was raised in the 80s and has a 4ft crawl space! No water entry inside even during storm Sandy! A great opportunity to own near the water and embrace the laid back beach lifestyle. Enjoy easy access to the free boat ramp at the end of the street too! Grab your kayak-Be the 1st!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,011 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,223 · $519/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,211/yr (+$101/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$5,011
• − Insurance: −$7,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,042
• − Management: −$4,042
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable loss: −$7,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $1,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $439,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $449,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+19.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,011 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.