22122 Canal St

Orchard City, CO 81410

$95,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $914/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $785/yr
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($785/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (3.8% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#316 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Delta County Joint District No. 50 (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #38 of 86 in CO (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedaredge Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #430 of 966 statewide, top 47%, 352 students, 58% FRL); Cedaredge Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 188 students, 50% FRL); Cedaredge High School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 296 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delta County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.8% in Orchard City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.