22122 Canal St · Orchard City, CO 81410

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a wonderful chance to own your own land with no HOA, combining affordability with room to expand in the quiet town of Austin, Colorado! The mobile home and land (parcel #:345306204004) will be conveyed with the vacant lot to the east (parcel #:345306204003), providing plenty of room to spread out. While the home is livable, it does need some updating, paint, and a good dusting off to reach its full potential. Includes Washer/Dryer and Refrigerator. RV parking! Shed with power. It is a great opportunity for extra space and growth. Schedule a viewing today!

Key facts

• Vacant lot
• Rv parking
• No hoa

Tags

• NO HOA
• VACANT LOT
• RV PARKING
• SHED WITH POWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Elevation approximately 5,043 ft; Zoning: RSF; Lot dimensions approximately 14' x 70' x 14' x 70'; Subdivision: Peach Valley Orchard

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built with foundation (details not provided)
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Paved road access; Publicly maintained road; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate counters; Window coverings; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($785/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.8% in Orchard City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#316 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Delta County Joint District No. 50 (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #38 of 86 in CO (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedaredge Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #430 of 966 statewide, top 47%, 352 students, 58% FRL); Cedaredge Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 188 students, 50% FRL); Cedaredge High School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 296 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Delta County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,383 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $55,919
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $161,423
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81410

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $98	+0% $65	+5% $33	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $29	+0% $65	+5% $101	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $90	base $65	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $95,000 Active
3. 2026-05-07
   listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$877
• − Management: −$877
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$774
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$186
• After-tax cash flow: $971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delta County Joint District No. 50
• NCES district ID: 0803330
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,741
• Composite: 30.33/100
• National rank: #6268
• State rank: #38 of 86 in CO

Livability — Orchard City

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #22198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orchard City, CO
• City population: 1,557
• Population (ZIP): 1,557

Population outlook (Delta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,529 people
• By 2030: 25,951 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 22,510 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 19,460 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 14,030 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 9,093 · -67.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 6% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.5) · D 31.0% · R 66.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -35.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.5 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+45.2 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.66%
• Current HPI: 220.5691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — GJARA
• 2026-05-07 Listed $95,000 cren
• 2026-05-07 Listed $95,000 GJARA

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2021): $9 · -40.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.