3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,024 sqft ·
Built 1952
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 6 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,132/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$342
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$448
Net cashflow
$31/mo
Annual
$377/yr
Cap rate
6.44%
Cash-on-cash
0.54%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$70,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($377/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.7% below list).
Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $213k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#77 in MD, #2,839 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 49% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $198k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.3% in Parkville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1YVG8Y9TNCPCPS
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29