106 W Lincoln Ave

Ogden, IL 61859

$110,250C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$578
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $40/mo
• Annual: $485/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.57%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $30,870

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($485/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($762 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#806 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St Joseph Ogden Chsd 305 (town): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #97 of 919 in IL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prairieview-Ogden South Elem (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 128 students, 0% FRL); Prairieview-Ogden Jr High Sch (math 44% / reading 54%, grade C, #51 of 665 statewide, top 9%, 53 students, 0% FRL); St Joseph-Ogden High School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #53 of 693 statewide, top 8%, 463 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St Joseph Ogden Chsd 305 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $110k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.