106 W Lincoln Ave · Ogden, IL 61859

$110,250

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1979 6,969 sqft lot Est $192k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

-SELLERS' ADDENDA AND BANK OF AMERICA PREQUALIFICATION REQUIRED ON ALL OFFERS. ATTRACTIVE KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR. CATHEDRAL CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN. SLIDING DOOR FROM DINING ROOM TO BACK YARD. BAY WINDOW IN LIVING ROOM. OVERSIZED GARAGE.

Key facts

• Spacious dining room
• White countertops
• Antique style hinges

Tags

• GARAGE ACCESS
• WHITE COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD GRAINED CABINETS
• ANTIQUE STYLE HINGES
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• SLIDING DOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single manufactured home; Fee simple ownership; Main living area only (single story implied)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built approximately 41–50 years ago
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 56 x 125; Lot under 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eating area / breakfast bar (approx. 13 x 11); Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (approx. 13 x 11); Bedroom on main level (approx. 11 x 9); Bedroom on main level (approx. 10 x 8)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring in dining room; Laminate flooring in living room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Separate dining room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#806 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St Joseph Ogden Chsd 305 (town): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #97 of 919 in IL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prairieview-Ogden South Elem (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 128 students, 0% FRL); Prairieview-Ogden Jr High Sch (math 44% / reading 54%, grade C, #51 of 665 statewide, top 9%, 53 students, 0% FRL); St Joseph-Ogden High School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #53 of 693 statewide, top 8%, 463 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St Joseph Ogden Chsd 305 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($762 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $110k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $103,635 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.07%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,384
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 S East Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-0%)	20mo	$155,000	$135	80
305 E Main St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,011 (-12%)	1mo	$174,900	$173	65
207 N East Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (+6%)	11mo	$205,000	$167	62
108 W Main St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+12%)	13mo	$257,000	$199	56
510 E Maple St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-3%)	22mo	$180,000	$161	54
409 W Broadway St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	17mo	$183,000	$143	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $76,525
• Equity at exit: $99,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.88×
• Total profit: $212,324
• Equity at exit: $214,192

Cash invested: $30,870 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61859

• Home prices YoY: 10.4%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$578
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $812/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $876

Max offer price $110,250

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $322	-5% $290	+0% $259	+5% $228	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $212	+0% $259	+5% $307	+10% $354
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $287	base $259	+0.5pp $231	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,562
• Closing costs: $3,308
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,250 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,250 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,250 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,250 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,250 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,250 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,250 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,250 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,250 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,250 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,250 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,250 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,250 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,250 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,250 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,250 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-19
    listed $110,250 Active
18. 2025-05-01
    status Temporarily No Showings
19. 2025-05-01
    historical
20. 2025-02-12
    historical
21. 2025-02-04
    price
22. 2025-01-27
    price
23. 2025-01-07
    price
24. 2024-12-29
    listed Active
25. 2011-08-25
    soldstatus $32,100 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    -SELLERS' ADDENDA AND BANK OF AMERICA PREQUALIFICATION REQUIRED ON ALL OFFERS. ATTRACTIVE KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR. CATHEDRAL CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN. SLIDING DOOR FROM DINING ROOM TO BACK YARD. BAY WINDOW IN LIVING ROOM. OVERSIZED GARAGE.

26. 2011-07-22
    historical 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    -SELLERS' ADDENDA AND BANK OF AMERICA PREQUALIFICATION REQUIRED ON ALL OFFERS. ATTRACTIVE KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR. CATHEDRAL CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN. SLIDING DOOR FROM DINING ROOM TO BACK YARD. BAY WINDOW IN LIVING ROOM. OVERSIZED GARAGE.

27. 2011-07-15
    listed $33,000 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    -SELLERS' ADDENDA AND BANK OF AMERICA PREQUALIFICATION REQUIRED ON ALL OFFERS. ATTRACTIVE KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR. CATHEDRAL CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN. SLIDING DOOR FROM DINING ROOM TO BACK YARD. BAY WINDOW IN LIVING ROOM. OVERSIZED GARAGE.

28. 1995-12-15
    soldstatus $28,333
29. 1995-12-15
    soldstatus $28,333

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,657 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$845/yr (+$70/mo · 104.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,176
• − Property taxes: −$812
• − Insurance: −$551
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − Depreciation: −$3,207
• Taxable income: $1,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$333
• After-tax cash flow: $2,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St Joseph Ogden Chsd 305
• NCES district ID: 1737410
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $72,624
• Composite: 50.9/100
• National rank: #3854
• State rank: #97 of 919 in IL

Livability — Ogden

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #15962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogden, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,271

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,848 people
• By 2030: 231,416 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 244,321 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 256,432 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 285,823 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 296,406 · +32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.1) · D 61.3% · R 37.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.1 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+18.4 2012: D+6.8 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.92%
• Current HPI: 285.1487
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+289.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $110,250 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-29 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-25 Sold (MLS) $32,100 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-15 Listed $33,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $28,333 Public Records
• 1995-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $28,333 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $812 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.