2521 San Pablo Ave

Oakland, CA 94612

$1,975,000C-

None bd · 5.0 ba · 16,582 sqft · Built 1928 · MultiFamily · Pending · 187 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $19,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,357
• Tax + insurance: −$2,882
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,021
• Net cashflow: $1,888/mo
• Annual: $22,651/yr
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $553,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $1.98M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $472/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.91M (3.0% below list).
• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.74M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.74M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $59k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Oakland Middle (178 students, 99% FRL); Mcclymonds High (281 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 68% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $1.98M implies a 690% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $553k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.5% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $19,148/mo this rent would consume 310% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 2526% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?