2521 San Pablo Ave · Oakland, CA 94612

$1,975,000

None bd · 5.0 ba · 16,582 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 187 Days on market

Built 1928 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

HUGE PRICE REDUCTION! 2521 San Pablo Avenue is a 4-unit residential live/work property in West Oakland. Built in 1928 as a dairy creamery and converted into lofts in 2005, the two-story brick and timber building totals 16,582 SF on 0.32 acres. Units range from 3,567 to 4,163 SF with open floor plans, high ceilings, and large factory windows. Each unit includes in-unit washers and dryers and access to a shared roof deck. Two units feature oversized garages, and three units will be delivered vacant at closing, providing significant flexibility for owner-occupancy, lease-up, or repositioning. Located along the San Pablo Avenue corridor with convenient access to I-580, I-880, downtown Oakland,

Key facts

• Historic character
• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• UNIQUE LIVE WORK LOFTS
• SHARED SECOND FLOOR ROOF DECK
• OVERSIZED GARAGE SPACES
• HISTORIC CHARACTER
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I 580
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I 880

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $1.98M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $472/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.91M (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.74M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.5% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Oakland Middle (178 students, 99% FRL); Mcclymonds High (281 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 68% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $19,148/mo this rent would consume 310% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 2526% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $59k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $553k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.74M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $1.98M implies a 690% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,738,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-114,816
• Equity at exit: $294,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $435,446
• Equity at exit: $170,762

Cash invested: $553,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Oakland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+62

Rent Adjustment Program + Just Cause.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94612

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 34.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,357
• Tax from tax record: −$1,993 /mo · $23,915/yr
• Insurance: −$823
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,021
• Net cashflow: $1,888

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,759

Max offer price $1,975,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,006	-5% $2,447	+0% $1,888	+5% $1,329	+10% $770
Rent	-10% $375	-5% $1,131	+0% $1,888	+5% $2,644	+10% $3,400
Rate	-1.0pp $2,882	-0.5pp $2,390	base $1,888	+0.5pp $1,376	+1.0pp $855

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	1.5	$19,148
Total (4 units)			$19,148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $493,750
• Closing costs: $59,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $1,975,000
3. 2026-01-22
   price $2,900,000
4. 2025-10-24
   price $3,200,000
5. 2025-09-10
   listed $3,500,000 Active
6. 1983-02-03
   soldstatus $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $23,915 · $1,993/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,915 · $1,993/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $229,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$110,631
• − Property taxes: −$23,915
• − Insurance: −$10,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,382
• − Management: −$18,382
• − Depreciation: −$57,455
• Taxable loss: −$9,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,319
• After-tax cash flow: $24,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0628050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,194
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #11769
• State rank: #1007 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7245

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakland, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 385,993
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 18,175
• Household income: $74,037
• Rent vs Own: 91.4% rent · 8.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2526.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 30% Asian 27% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 32% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Chinese 14% Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.34%
• Current HPI: 212.2879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.23%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+690.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $1,975,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $2,900,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $3,200,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-10 Listed $3,500,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1983-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $23,915 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.