5845 E Bridge Ln NE

Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,295,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax + insurance: −$1,164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,606
• Net cashflow: $-1,912/mo
• Annual: $-22,947/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $362,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $957k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $765k (40.9% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $765k (40.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $138k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $130k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $1.29M implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$223k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 7.3% in Cutchogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.